March 25, 2023

The world’s factory, China, is having the effects of the strong rebound in coronavirus cases that the easing of the ‘zero Covid’ policy has brought with it. The industrial activity of the world’s second largest economy fell in December for the fifth consecutive month. according to the purchasing manager index (PMI) both for the supply and demand side, with the slowdown of the global economy.

Specifically, the indicator went from the 49.4 points registered in November to 49 in the last month. Any PMI result above 50 points represents an expansion of the sector compared to the previous month while one below implies a setback. The data for December is slightly above what was expected by analysts, who predicted that the indicator would be around 48.8 integers.

The official PMI, published this Saturday by the Chinese National Statistical Office (ONE, for its acronym in English) showed an even worse result, falling from 48 to 47 points. Wang Zhe, an economist at Caixin, highlights how the sub-index that measures employment in the sector reached its second worst mark in the last 34 months, while in the one that follows logistics times, the pandemic “continued to be the main factor restricting the chain of supply”.

Despite this, the companies consulted have hinted at their highest level of optimism since last February and expressed their confidence that the dismantling of ‘zero covid’ and the consequent disappearance of the harsh restrictions and confinements in the country will mean for the national economic recovery.

The fear of a Chinese slowdown in 2023

This Monday, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned this Monday that the effects of her anti-covid policy will have a negative impact not only on her economy, but also on that of the region as a whole and on GDP world

At the same time that this weakening occurs, the country is affected by a global context that has been greatly affected by the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the context of very high inflation that has forced central banks to make a 180-degree turn. to its monetary policy, with the most accelerated rate rise rate since the 1980s. All this context suggests that some of the main economies of the planet will go into recession (or are already being affected by it), which will weigh down a global consumption that has not fully recovered from some breaks in supply chains.-

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