The price of a barrel of Brent oil, which could fluctuate between 80 and 100 dollars this year, will be conditioned, among other factors, by the evolution of the Chinese economy, the slowdown in developed economies, which could enter recession, or lax influences. of monetary policies in the price of the dollar.
According to several analysts consulted by Efe, the price of oil could withstand high volatility, which would also be influenced by the news on the evolution of the world economy, or more specifically from the United States and China, as well as by + OPEC decisions on production or the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the management of its reserves.
For the IG analyst Diego Morín, the entry into recession of many economies will be the main determining factor in the price of oil this year, which will trade between 80 and 100 dollars, a situation that could worsen if China’s economy deteriorates greatly due to the explosion of Covid-19 cases. In this, he has indicated that he could realize a situation similar to that experienced in 2008, of a sharp drop in its price precipitated by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers: before it it was traded at 150 dollars and later it changed to less than 40 Now it could go down to $60 if the economy worsens.
Morín has indicated that the rise in interest rates to contain inflation, especially in the United States (now they are between 4.25% and 4.5%), will end up causing a recession, which is the only possible way to control inflation. inflation that will end up falling in the price of oil. In his opinion, the Brent price is now less conditioned by the war in Ukraine or by new sanctions that could be imposed on Russia on its oil exports, of which details would be needed.
The XTB analyst Manuel Pinto, for his part, has considered that the demand for crude oil this year and its price are marked by the reopening of China, since its consumption may increase. However, Pinto has indicated that the price of Brent will be conditioned by the impact on the dollar of the rate hike in the United States to moderate prices or other decisions, such as the one adopted this week by Saudi Arabia to lower the price of its oil. in Asia and Europe due to low demand. He added that the measures that Opec + can adopt will also influence the evolution of Brent, which now has its support levels (stops the falls) at 61 dollars and resistance (stops the rises) at 93 dollars.
Alfonso Batalla explained that the average price of Brent this year would be between 80 and 85 dollars a barrel and that it will be conditioned by volatility and the incidence of the reopening of China, from which negative news is now coming and that demand is constrained . The sanctions against Russia, the high reserves and the cut in production capacity (now the companies are not looking for large wells, but are exploiting small ones with a reduced volume) are other conditions that will affect the price of Brent.
In addition, he has commented that the OPEC + meeting in June (he wants to keep the price of his barrel around 100 dollars) would be decided, new cuts in daily production could be decided, which would have a negative impact on inflation, interest rates and could deepen in the coming recession. Before the market closed on Friday, a barrel of Brent oil was down just over 7% this week, going from around $86 to $79.
Last year, Brent fluctuated between a high of $139.13 at the close on March 7, a few days after the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and a low of $75.11 on December 9. In the annual computation, it was revalued by 10.5%, going from $77.78 at the end of 2021 to $85.91 on the last day of last year. The value of the euro marked its maximum last year at 1.1495 dollars on February 10 and the minimum at 0.9536 dollars on September 28. In 2022 it depreciated 6%, since in 2021 it ended at $1,137 and last year at $1.0705.
